The #BNPParibasOpen has always brought us unexpected finals. 2017 saw a thrilling all-Russian battle which lasted more than three hours between veterans Elena Vesnina and Svetlana Kuznetsova. 2018 provided the fans with an insight into the next generation, with Naomi Osaka and Daria Kasatkina contesting the highest-profile next generation match.
2019? Eighth seed #AngeliqueKerber bounces back from a disappointing start to the new season to surge into her first-ever Premier Mandatory final to face Canadian wildcard #BiancaAndreescu, who wowed everyone with her tennis this fortnight. Ranked 60th currently, Andreescu is the first wildcard to reach the final in the history of this tournament.
Road to the final: Kerber
Kerber started her Indian Wells campaign in the best possible way — with a dominant 6-0, 6-2 win over the dangerous Yulia Putintseva. The German was firing on all cylinders having fired 29 winners to just 12 unforced errors throughout the encounter to set up her first-ever meeting with Natalia Vikhlyantseva in the third round.
Despite not looking at her best, Kerber did what a top player should have done; grinding out those wins when everything does not seem to be working. The eighth seed had to battle past an inspired Vikhlyantseva who provided a real challenge and ultimately triumphed in three sets.
In one of the biggest comebacks in this tournament, Kerber retrieved from a double-break deficit in the final set against Aryna Sabalenka in a highly-anticipated fourth-round match, recovering from 1-4 down to prevail and claim her first top-10 win of the year.
Facing the only other remaining 30-and-over player in the draw, Kerber ousted the resurgent Venus Williams in a high-quality quarterfinal encounter with the American looking bothered by an injury. Kerber fought back from an early break and never looked back, defeating the seven-time Major champion 7-6, 6-3.
Kerber’s fantastic run continued with a return masterclass against Belinda Bencic, whose 12-match winning streak was snapped as a result. The German was in red-hot form with her tactics working outrageously well, breaking down the Swiss’ forehand which allowed her to snatch the terrific 6-4, 6-2 win having rattled off 10 of the last 12 games.
Road to the final: Andreescu
Andreescu has been particularly impressive this fortnight, having navigated her way through the tricky draw despite being a wildcard ranked 60. She overturned a 0-1 head-to-head deficit against Irina-Camelia Begu, fighting back from 1-3 down in the deciding set to triumph and set-up an intriguing second-round clash with former world number four Dominika Cibulkova.
Easing past the Slovakian with the loss of just four games, Andreescu put in another flawless display against qualifier Stefanie Voegele to reach the fourth round on her debut. There, she stunned the 18th seed Wang Qiang in straight sets for her third career top-20 win.
Being the tour leader in terms of the number of matches won, Andreescu’s fine run continued with a complete demolition of former world number one and two-time Major champion Garbine Muguruza in the quarterfinals having just lost one game in the process and winning nine consecutive at one point in time.
Andreescu followed it up with yet another upset, this time for her second top-10 win which came against sixth seed Elina Svitolina in the last four. Rattling off seven straight games this time around, Andreescu survived a huge challenge and battled past the Ukrainian 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 after showing some nerves of steel during the nerviest moments.
What it means for both players: A resurgence for Kerber, a breakthrough for Andreescu
This is both players’ first appearance in the final of the BNP Paribas Open. Interestingly enough, Kerber had not reached the final of a Premier Mandatory event throughout her storied career but now she joins the likes of Sharapova, Williams sisters, and Steffi Graf to have reached the final at every level on the tour.
Kerber had previously reached back-to-back semifinals in 2012 and 2013, losing to eventual champion Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki respectively. This is also her best performance since her triumph at Wimbledon, having not won three consecutive matches since then. With her first Indian Wells title, Kerber would rise to the second spot although a loss would also ensure that she returns to the top-four.
Impressively, this is just Andreescu’s eighth WTA main draw appearance and her first at a Premier Mandatory tournament. Claiming three top-20 wins in the process, the Canadian is the youngest player to reach the final since 2001 and looks to be the fourth unseeded player to lift the trophy. She would be encouraged by the fact that the last four unseeded women who reached the final all went on to reach the final.
Having ended 2018 ranked outside the top-150, Andreescu’s rise has been rocket-like. She barely made her top-100 debut and she currently finds herself in the 33rd spot with this run to the final. Reaching her first WTA final in Auckland, the Canadian would rise to 24th in the rankings with her maiden title.
Match Analysis: Can Kerber breakdown Andreescu’s aggression?
Both players have the momentum that they needed — especially for Kerber who finally regained her top form after a disappointing start to 2019. Andreescu looked flawless throughout the entire week; whether it is her physical game or the mental game. Aged just 18, the Canadian displayed such strong mentality when she battled past Svitolina and that is definitely required against Kerber, who is such a strong fighter as well.
The stakes are high in this match because Kerber is prone to self-destructive performances, especially when the final is played at 1 pm local time and the last time she played around this timing — she was almost sent home by Vikhlyantseva in the third round. Andreescu excelled against Muguruza the last time she was out in the afternoon.
Which Kerber will appear in this final? No one knows. The first time she reached the Olympics final and the final of the WTA Finals, she produced lacklustre performances which caused her to fall short and with this being her first Premier Mandatory final, could she once again fall victim to the pressure of being the overwhelming favourite on paper?
Talking about pressure, let’s not forget her opponent on the other half of the court. Nerves were evident for Andreescu at the start of her semifinal match, having gone down a double-break against Svitolina within a blink of an eye. In what would be the biggest match of her young career, would Andreescu be able to handle the nerves? Walking out to a filled Stadium 1 as an 18-year-old would be tough, but we will let it all unravel on Sunday afternoon.
Kerber’s excellent counterpunching skills would pose a huge problem for Andreescu especially with her ability to redirect the pace and her fantastic down-the-line shots. The Canadian displays a variety of shots in her game and would need to play some smart tennis; being aggressive is not enough.
Kerber excels in extending the rallies which will grind down Andreescu and with the balls and court speed going slower than usual under the hot conditions, all the factors point towards the German. Nonetheless, the 18-year-old will be looking to overturn the odds and continue riding high on her confidence to claim her maiden title.
I would say that Andreescu can take advantage of a slow start from Kerber to take the first set, but whether she could keep up with the consistency is another huge question mark. Once Kerber gets it going, it would be difficult to stop her momentum and the German should be able to grab the win in three sets.
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